Trump's campaign got burned again Saturday in the hunt for loyal delegates to the Republican National Convention, this time on turf where he'd recently trounced his rivals in Primary elections.
Though Trump's campaign showed more muscle than ever in this shadow Primary, he walked away in defeat in Arizona, losing about 40 of the 55 delegate slots that were up for grabs on the day. That's despite a dominant Primary win March 22 and a furious attempt by supporters to guarantee the election of allies to the National Convention.
Even former Governor Jan Brewer, an outspoken Trump supporter, had her name removed from the online ballot and did not make the cut. "I've been elected to 5 straight National Conventions. Today, I got cheated."
Instead, it was Cruz who emerged with the bulk of support from the State's delegates. Though all of Arizona's delegates are bound to vote for Trump on the first vote at the National Convention, most are likely to flip to Cruz if Trump is unable to clinch the nomination.
And Cruz wasn't done racking up victories on Trump's turf. In Virginia, where Trump beat Cruz by a two-to-one margin in a March 1 Primary, Cruz's forces captured at least 10 of the 13 delegates on the ballot. The Texas Senator won 18 of 24 delegates in local Missouri Conventions, even though Trump won that State on Primary day as well.
In all, Cruz won about 80 delegate slots on the day of the more than 170 up for grabs. Another handful went to Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and even Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race on March 15, scored about seven supportive delegates. Another dozen haven't revealed who they support yet.
It wasn't a totally lost day for Trump. He scored strong victories in Massachusetts delegate fights and held his own in Arkansas and Alaska, showing an organizational strength that has escaped him in dozens of State and Local delegate battles so far. On the day, Trump earned about 60 delegates, far fewer than the results of the State Primaries and Caucuses dictated, but enough to stave off catastrophe.
Cruz's team is operating in a changing environment though. Trump has scored overpowering victories in the last six Primaries and appears to be on a trajectory to clinch the nomination on a first ballot, when most Convention delegates are bound to vote based on the results of State Primaries and Caucuses. That could render the hunt for loyal delegates meaningless, and Trump's allies have been dismissing the prospect of a Contested Convention in recent weeks.
Yet if Trump fails to post large victories in the next round of Primaries, Cruz's huge delegate hauls on what should be safe Trump turf limit Trump's ability to compete at a Contested Convention. With each delegate battle he loses, he faces likelier odds of walking into a National Convention where a majority of delegates opposes his nomination.
Trump helped his cause most in Massachusetts, where a well-organized effort, aided by a cavalry of Trump supporters from New Hampshire, scored 23 of 27 delegate slots. Trump's Campaign Co-Chairman there, State Rep. Geoff Diehl, said he hopes the effort becomes a model for Trump going forward, and has turned the tide against Cruz's delegate dominance.
The Arizona loss, though, stung. Trump had earned about 14 of the State's 27 Local delegates earlier in the day, a result that had his backers bullish about a strong overall haul from his southwestern stronghold. But at least a handful of those supporters also appeared on Ted Cruz's slate, raising questions about their loyalty. Gov. Doug Ducey also appeared on Trump's slate but is considered neutral in the contest.
A last minute push by State Party leaders to aid Trump's efforts fell flat, though, when the State Convention selected 28 At-Large delegates. There, Cruz forces helped push through 26 anti-Trump delegates.
The rest of the day was a mixed bag for Trump. Delaware, where Trump won about 60% of the vote on Tuesday, picked a slate of 13 State Party activists whose loyalty is uncertain as they're not tied to any particular candidate. In Arkansas, another strong Trump State, the mogul earned six delegates to Cruz's four and Marco Rubio's two. And in Alaska, where Cruz narrowly defeated Trump in March 1 Caucuses, Cruz picked up 12 delegates to Trump 11, while Rubio scored five.
In South Carolina, where Trump won easily against a crowded field in February, none of the three delegates elected Saturday are supporters. Two are uncommitted, and one backs Cruz. One of the South Carolina delegates, Tyson Grinstead, said he leans toward backing John Kasich at the Convention but noted that he's bound to back Trump on a first ballot. And he's not so sure Trump won't clinch it immediately. Grinstead, a former Political Director for Sen. Lindsey Graham, said he won a narrow fight, beating out several "heavy hitters", including Sally Atwater, the widow of legendary GOP Strategist Lee Atwater.
Sally Atwater said she intends to pursue a Statewide delegate slot but isn't sure yet who she'll support in the race. "I don't think the race would probably be like this if Lee was here," she said. "He knew what was going on all throughout the country. It wouldn't have taken him by surprise."
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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